Do you know who is the winner of the "Britain Got Talent" singing contest? He name is Paul Potts. He is a mobilephone salesman.
You can hear about his inspiring story and his good singing in Su Ling's blog.
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Is the stockmarket too highly valued?
Is the stockmarket too highly valued? Is it safe to enter into the stockmarket now?
Some experts look at the price earning ratio of the stocks. This is the current market price divided by the earnings per share. Historically, a ratio of 15 times looks at a fair level. If the P/E ratio is 25 times, it is considered as expensive. If it is less than 10 times, it is cheap.
At the current level of the ST Index of 3,600 for the Singapore market, the P/E ratio is likely to be about 18 times. Some experts argued that it is not too high. So, it is safe (according to this view).
I remember in 2003, the ST Index was at 1,200. If the current P/E ratio is 18 times (ST of 3,600), surely, it must be only 6 times in 2003 (ST of 1,200)?
This was not the case. In 2003, the profits of the companies were about 25% of today. So, the P/E ratio in 2003 was around 24 times. Many experts argued, on the P/E ratio, that you should sell the stocks.
What is the flaw?
It is wrong to calculate the P/E ratio based on the latest year's profit. It is better to use an average of 3 to 5 years to calcuate the P/E ratio, so that the fluctuation in the earnings can be smoothed. Unfortunately, I am not aware of any P/E ratio that is calculated on this smoothing method.
Lesson: Be careful about interpreting the P/E ratio. Try to take the average profit for a few years, so that you are not distored by by extreme results in one year.
Some experts look at the price earning ratio of the stocks. This is the current market price divided by the earnings per share. Historically, a ratio of 15 times looks at a fair level. If the P/E ratio is 25 times, it is considered as expensive. If it is less than 10 times, it is cheap.
At the current level of the ST Index of 3,600 for the Singapore market, the P/E ratio is likely to be about 18 times. Some experts argued that it is not too high. So, it is safe (according to this view).
I remember in 2003, the ST Index was at 1,200. If the current P/E ratio is 18 times (ST of 3,600), surely, it must be only 6 times in 2003 (ST of 1,200)?
This was not the case. In 2003, the profits of the companies were about 25% of today. So, the P/E ratio in 2003 was around 24 times. Many experts argued, on the P/E ratio, that you should sell the stocks.
What is the flaw?
It is wrong to calculate the P/E ratio based on the latest year's profit. It is better to use an average of 3 to 5 years to calcuate the P/E ratio, so that the fluctuation in the earnings can be smoothed. Unfortunately, I am not aware of any P/E ratio that is calculated on this smoothing method.
Lesson: Be careful about interpreting the P/E ratio. Try to take the average profit for a few years, so that you are not distored by by extreme results in one year.
Talk on Financial Planning
I received a request from the recreational club of a government department to give a lunch time talk on financial planning to their members.
I asked the participants to read the FAQs here.
I asked the participants to read the FAQs here.
Visitors to my blog
I was surprised to see an increase in visitors to my blog during the past two days. It exceeded 600 visits a day. Perhaps my regular visitors are doing me a favour in passing the word around to visit my blog. To my promoters, THANK YOU.
Grouses of taxi drivers
Singapore is well known for our complaining taxi drivers. It seems that they are an unhappy lot and have a lot of things to compaint about.
Do taxi drivers in other parts of the world behave like this? Is this an occupational trait?
Not so! I visited Kuala Lumpur on a few occasions during the past two years and spoke to the taxi drivers. They are generally quite happy with their situation. They like their freedom (as taxi drivers) and are happy with their earnings.
Perhaps, our taxi drivers in Singapore find the life to be too stressful?
Do taxi drivers in other parts of the world behave like this? Is this an occupational trait?
Not so! I visited Kuala Lumpur on a few occasions during the past two years and spoke to the taxi drivers. They are generally quite happy with their situation. They like their freedom (as taxi drivers) and are happy with their earnings.
Perhaps, our taxi drivers in Singapore find the life to be too stressful?
Overcrowded Singapore - a comment
COMMENT POSTED IN MY BLOG
The overcrowding will only get worse as our govt is targeting 6.5 million population! I take the MRT daily and I can't see how it can take on additional commuters.
Perhaps our highly paid policy-makers are living in posh neighbourhoods, thus having no clue clue how life is like in the heartland.
I can't help but laugh when our transport minister claimed to check bus-stops and public transports to gauge the situation....although he does NOT take public transport at all.
I would like to tell him that there is a whole world of difference between merely checking as a bystander and actually suffering from overcrowded public transport day-in day-out!!
The overcrowding will only get worse as our govt is targeting 6.5 million population! I take the MRT daily and I can't see how it can take on additional commuters.
Perhaps our highly paid policy-makers are living in posh neighbourhoods, thus having no clue clue how life is like in the heartland.
I can't help but laugh when our transport minister claimed to check bus-stops and public transports to gauge the situation....although he does NOT take public transport at all.
I would like to tell him that there is a whole world of difference between merely checking as a bystander and actually suffering from overcrowded public transport day-in day-out!!
Bad customer service from Telcos
COMMENT POSTED IN MY BLOG
I really hate all the telcos' customer service. Its one of the worst in Singapore. Once you are subscribed, you are finished.
Its one way all through out. I'm subscribed to Singtel Mobile for the last 7 years, and never in these 7 years I can reach the customer service easily. Its a shame on Singtel.
I like NTUC's call centre and I always recommend it to my friends. Why not telcos listen and use NTUC's model.
Govt promotes service, but what these giants doing are something opposite to customer service. Once we are a customer, its like we have to service them.
I lost hope with them.
I really hate all the telcos' customer service. Its one of the worst in Singapore. Once you are subscribed, you are finished.
Its one way all through out. I'm subscribed to Singtel Mobile for the last 7 years, and never in these 7 years I can reach the customer service easily. Its a shame on Singtel.
I like NTUC's call centre and I always recommend it to my friends. Why not telcos listen and use NTUC's model.
Govt promotes service, but what these giants doing are something opposite to customer service. Once we are a customer, its like we have to service them.
I lost hope with them.
Singapore is getting over-crowded
Many of us may not realise it. But the population of Singapore had increased by 60% during the past 16 years. The population in 1990 was 2.7 million. It is now 4.3 million.
This large increase in population is affecting our daily lives in the following ways:
* demand for more hospital beds and doctors
* delayed buses and cramped trains
* congested roads, insufficient parking spaces, too many cars
It looks like the infrastructure has to be expanded considerably to cope with the larger population.
This large increase in population is affecting our daily lives in the following ways:
* demand for more hospital beds and doctors
* delayed buses and cramped trains
* congested roads, insufficient parking spaces, too many cars
It looks like the infrastructure has to be expanded considerably to cope with the larger population.
Best Public Service in the World
Here is the rating of the customer service of various governments, as conducted by Accenture.
Singapore 89%
Canada 88%
USA 79%
Denmark 75%
Sweden 74%
.....
Japan 55% (10th)
Malaysia 44% (14th)
Singapore came out top in the survey.
An important contribution for our high ranking is the work of the Infocomm Development Authority in encouraging the use of e-government services.
Congratulations to IDA.
Singapore 89%
Canada 88%
USA 79%
Denmark 75%
Sweden 74%
.....
Japan 55% (10th)
Malaysia 44% (14th)
Singapore came out top in the survey.
An important contribution for our high ranking is the work of the Infocomm Development Authority in encouraging the use of e-government services.
Congratulations to IDA.
Universal ID for website
I hope, one day, that there is a universal ID and password that can be used for all websites.
At present, we have to provide an ID and password for each website. Here are the problems:
* each website imposes its own non-standard constraints on the ID and password
* some ID cannot be accepted, as it has already been used
* we have to keep a record of all the different IDs and passwords used in the websites.
A few years ago, Microsoft wanted to introduce a "passport" that can solve this problem. This idea did not take off. I hope that Microsoft, Google or Yahoo will try again. Maybe, it will be accepted now.
At present, we have to provide an ID and password for each website. Here are the problems:
* each website imposes its own non-standard constraints on the ID and password
* some ID cannot be accepted, as it has already been used
* we have to keep a record of all the different IDs and passwords used in the websites.
A few years ago, Microsoft wanted to introduce a "passport" that can solve this problem. This idea did not take off. I hope that Microsoft, Google or Yahoo will try again. Maybe, it will be accepted now.
Feedback on the Telcos
COMMENT BY ROGER IN MY BLOG:
Many organisations have used this press button select options system for many years now. NTUC Income under your leadership was the very few organisations left to use real people to answer calls. Kudos to you.
Starhub's hotline is actually more user friendly and you can get to a courteous operator faster than Singtel.
The designers of these centres are usually technical people who are not able to put themselves into the shoes of the laymen. Also many staff nowadays use the automated system to ward off customers calls and put it into an endless loop where a sweet recorded voice kept telling you how important you are to the company and that you will be attended to shortly and it is actually a real test of patience as your phone bill goes up without any real purpose. So the phone companies get to benefit from these too.
There have been recently the hue and cry over Starhub's increase in fees and the contract that prevents people from cancelling their subscriptions.
Singtel also practices these unfair methods by a three year contract which does not reduce in price when a similar broadband service by the same company is now 20 dollars cheaper. Subscribers cannot cancel unless having to pay a hefty penalty fee but has to continue to pay the old higher subscription fees. How is it that when prices are raised then the contract is not binding in price but when prices are reduced it is binding?
We are now living in a society that cares only for more money, whether in cash or in kind, like all these automated answering services in the name of higher productivity but in actual fact just wants to save money by cutting down on the number of real people manning the phones to give real service.
Many organisations have used this press button select options system for many years now. NTUC Income under your leadership was the very few organisations left to use real people to answer calls. Kudos to you.
Starhub's hotline is actually more user friendly and you can get to a courteous operator faster than Singtel.
The designers of these centres are usually technical people who are not able to put themselves into the shoes of the laymen. Also many staff nowadays use the automated system to ward off customers calls and put it into an endless loop where a sweet recorded voice kept telling you how important you are to the company and that you will be attended to shortly and it is actually a real test of patience as your phone bill goes up without any real purpose. So the phone companies get to benefit from these too.
There have been recently the hue and cry over Starhub's increase in fees and the contract that prevents people from cancelling their subscriptions.
Singtel also practices these unfair methods by a three year contract which does not reduce in price when a similar broadband service by the same company is now 20 dollars cheaper. Subscribers cannot cancel unless having to pay a hefty penalty fee but has to continue to pay the old higher subscription fees. How is it that when prices are raised then the contract is not binding in price but when prices are reduced it is binding?
We are now living in a society that cares only for more money, whether in cash or in kind, like all these automated answering services in the name of higher productivity but in actual fact just wants to save money by cutting down on the number of real people manning the phones to give real service.
Call centers of our Telcos
I wanted to apply for a fixed line. I called the call center of SingTel and Starhub. It was a frustrating experience.
They asked me to listen to pass a button select an option, and to go through it many times. The trouble is that I do not understand the various services and options.
I hope that the designers of call center system are considerate. They should understand that the ordinary customer does not understand the complications of your business. Why not get the customer to talk to a person on your careline early?
They asked me to listen to pass a button select an option, and to go through it many times. The trouble is that I do not understand the various services and options.
I hope that the designers of call center system are considerate. They should understand that the ordinary customer does not understand the complications of your business. Why not get the customer to talk to a person on your careline early?
Yield on Money Market Fund
The unit price of the Money Market Fund of NTUC Income increased by 0.2 cents (0.18%) for the past 28 days. This works out to an annualised yield of 2.4%. The yield was 3% previously. It has dropped during the past month.
Dude
Someone described me as a "dude". I searched the internet for a definition. I obtained the following from Wikipedia:
The term "dude" is best known as a widely-used English slang word commonly used to informally address or refer to a person of the male sex. The word may also be used in the same manner when speaking to (or about) a person of the female sex.
In informal social situations, it is not uncommon for young men to use the word "dude" to address one another, for example, "Mike Smith is one cool dude", or "Who did that?", "[The] dude with the red shirt did that". (sis).
The term "dude" is best known as a widely-used English slang word commonly used to informally address or refer to a person of the male sex. The word may also be used in the same manner when speaking to (or about) a person of the female sex.
In informal social situations, it is not uncommon for young men to use the word "dude" to address one another, for example, "Mike Smith is one cool dude", or "Who did that?", "[The] dude with the red shirt did that". (sis).
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